聯儲局:加息75點子不是常態

聯儲局加息75點子,跟這兩天的市場預期相若,以下是會議聲明的一些要點:

*FED RAISES MAIN RATE BY 75 BPS TO 1.5%-1.75% TARGET RANGE

*FED SEES RATES AT 3.4% END-2022, 3.8% END-2023, 3.4% END-2024

*FED SAYS `STRONGLY COMMITTED' TO RETURNING INFLATION TO 2%

*FED SAYS BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION PROCEEDING AT ANNOUNCED PACE

*FED SAYS JOB GAINS ROBUST, UNEMPLOYMENT HAS REMAINED LOW

*FED REPEATS HIGHLY ATTENTIVE TO INFLATION RISKS

*Fed Officials See Inflation of 5.2% at End of 2022; 2.6% for 2023

*Fed Officials See 1.7% GDP Growth at End of 2022; 1.7% for 2023

最重要的鮑威爾記者會,當中提及一些重點:

*Powell: Inflation Surprised to Upside Since May FOMC Meeting –WSJ

*POWELL: DON'T EXPECT MOVES OF TODAY'S SIZE TO BE COMMON

*Powell: Doesn't Believe 75 Basis Point Hikes Will Become Common –WSJ

*POWELL: 50 OR 75 BASIS-POINT MOVE MOST LIKELY AT NEXT MEETING

*POWELL: FINANCIAL MARKETS SHOW THEY UNDERSTAND PATH WE LAY OUT

*POWELL: PRELIM MICHIGAN READING WAS `QUITE EYE-CATCHING'

*POWELL: POLICY WILL NEED TO BE RESTRICTIVE, DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH

*POWELL:FOMC GUIDANCE STILL CREDIBLE,CONDITIONAL ON WHAT HAPPENS

*POWELL: MANY FACTORS FOMC CAN'T CONTROL PLAY ROLE IN SUCCESS

*Powell: External Factors Making Inflation Control Harder for Fed –WSJ

*Powell: Expected Rise in Unemployment Still at Historically Low Level –WSJ

*Powell: Fed Does Not Seek to Induce Recession for Economy –WSJ

*POWELL:NOT APPROPRIATE TO SAY MONETARY POLICY CAN DO THIS ALONE

*POWELL: OVERALL SPENDING IS STRONG, CONSUMER IS IN GOOD SHAPE

*POWELL: `THERE'S NO SIGN' OF A BROADER SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY

*POWELL: THERE'S ALWAYS RISK OF GOING TOO FAR OR NOT FAR ENOUGH

*POWELL: MARKETS SEEM TO BE OK WITH QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING

*POWELL: NO REASON TO THINK QT WILL LEAD TO ILLIQUDITY PROBLEMS

*POWELL: NEED TO GET HOUSING MARKET SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCED

美股、債息、美元及虛擬貨幣都算是鬆了一口氣,因為鮑威爾比想像中無咁鷹,認為七月議息都係50至75點子,仲話75點子不會成為常態,佢認為金融市場好理解聯儲局的動作,暗示早兩日的急劇轉向其實係大家估得啱,又或者是WSJ放風放得好(青冰估嘅)。佢認為雖然加息好似好多,但只係之前利率太低而已,佢亦唔覺得經濟及消費者信心有大幅度的影響,感覺上他對美國經濟仍然好有信心,有一點佢在以往的會議及今次都講過不少次,就係聯儲局都是睇數據做人,5月時覺得50點子夠,但之後通脹數字及就業數據令到聯儲局要改變主意,所以日後出數據真係要睇實,基本上數據出咗,都可以預計到聯儲局會點做,相信佢話市場充分理解聯儲局會點做,係指聯邦基金利率期貨市場的走向,所以往後睇實CME個FED Watch喇。樓價都是佢會關注的東西,想希望加息能帶返樓價去一個平衡點,這個都好重要,因為CPI內住屋支出佔三至四成,樓價降溫,CPI就會落,加息就可以無咁重手,你睇近日創科(0669)咁弱,其實都反映了新屋需求走勢。

總括而言,市場要驚嘅早幾日已經驚凸咗,今晚美股反彈都算合理,往後就要睇實通脹、就業及房屋數據了。

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Credit: 青冰投資